Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
