A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
